What is Howard’s Role in the Timor Leste Coup? : Melbourne Indymedia

What is Howard’s Role in the Timor Leste Coup?
Sun, 2006/05/28

By Tim Anderson

The violence in Dili is hardly an industrial dispute, nor spontaneous ethnic violence. Timor Leste’s Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, says the armed attacks are part of an attempted coup, and follow a history of destabilisation attempts. It is likely he knows better than the Australian pundits, who have been speaking simply of ‘east west’ rivalry, and an ‘immature’ nation, unready for independence.

Such caricatures of the country and the government are misleading and dangerous. There has been destabilisation of the legitimate Fretilin government, ever since independence, and the Howard government has played a part. An important question now is: how much of a part?

A fairly high level of organisation, and confidence, can be seen both in the mobilisation of weapons and the international appeals from the army defectors. Heavy weapons were taken, and renegade leader Alfredo Reinado (who joined Gastao Salsinha, leader of the sacked soldiers) says he welcomes the arrival Australian troops, and wants to ‘have a VB’ with the aussies.

Such familiarity from a person engaged in murder and mutiny is disturbing. And instead of calling Reinado and his followers ‘criminals’ or ‘terrorists’, John Howard has turned on the Alkatiri Government. As the troops roll in Howard says “The country has not been well governed .. the real challenge … is to get a government that has the confidence of the local people”.

Coup plotters rarely act without assurances of outside support, or at the least post-coup recognition. A US guarantee of regime recognition was central to the Chilean coup of 1973, and the abortive 2002 coup in Venezuela. More recently in Haiti, even though the US had no credible alternative candidate, they fomented violence to remove a popular leftist leader.

Media backing is essential for a coup. Paul Kelly from The Australian (which has waged a long campaign against the Fretilin government) questions whether the democratically elected PM of the country “has a long-term role here as part of the solution”. Some diplomats are reported as saying that the resignation of Alkatiri “may convince the warring gangs to lay down their arms”.

On this argument, PM Alkatiri only “survived” the recent Fretilin elections, where he faced a possible challenge from a Washington-based diplomat. In fact, Alkatiri won more than 90% support in the party vote, and Fretilin retains almost 60% support across the country .

While the internal rivalry between Prime Minister Alkatiri and President Xanana Gusmao has received a lot of attention, less has been said about international tensions and destabilisation, which has followed several disputes.

The dispute over oil and gas is well known. Mari Alkatiri had the support of all parties in driving a hard line with the Howard government. Many believe the Timorese were still robbed by a deal Howard continues to call ‘generous’.

Less well known are the disputes over agriculture, where Australia and the World Bank refused to help rehabilitate and build the Timorese rice industry, and refused to support use of aid money for grain silos. Under Alkatiri, the Timorese have reduced their rice import-dependence from two-thirds to one-third of domestic consumption.

After independence an expensive phone service run by Telstra was replaced by a government joint venture with a Portuguese company. And following a popular campaign, Timor Leste remains one of the few ‘debt free’ poor countries. Alkatiri’s consideration here, as economic manager, was to retain some control over the country’s budget, and the building of public institutions.

In 2005 there was a Church led dispute over the apparent relegation of religious education to ‘voluntary’ status in schools. The dispute was resolved, but not before it had become the focus of an open campaign to remove Alkatiri, who was branded a ‘communist’. During this dispute some East Timorese were alarmed to see that the US Embassy (and possibly also the Australians) providing material support (such as portable toilets) to the demonstrators, effectively backing an opposition movement.

Over 2004-06 the Alkatiri government secured the services dozens of Cuban doctors, and several hundred young Timorese students are now in Cuba, studying medicine free of charge. No one criticises this valuable assistance, but the US does all it can to undermine Cuban policy.

It is worth remembering that the suggested ‘communist’ politics of Fretilin in 1975 was a major reason for US support for the Indonesian invasion and occupation. Australia followed suit. Today the ‘communist’ tag is again used by Reinado to target the Fretilin government.

Reinado rejects government orders, but has allied himself to Xanana and Jose Ramos Horta, the two non-Fretilin members of the government. (Ramos Horta is known to be close to the Bush administration.) It is not clear yet to what extent Xanana and Ramos Horta have links to Reinado. Alkatiri has not, contrary to media reports, accused the President of complicity. Yet the coup attempt proceeds in Xanana’s name.

The current situation is complicated by the arming of civilian groups on both sides of the coup plot, and the fact that troops from several countries have been invited. Of these, the Portuguese seem to maintain strongest support for the Timorese government, while the Australians seem to be apologising for the plotters.

A possible ‘junta’ to be installed by Australian intervention (already hinted at by Kirsty Sword Gusmao) could include nominees of the Catholic bishops, Ramos Horta and an ailing Xanana (ill with kidney disease). The forced removal of Mari Alkatiri, his ministers and army chief Taur Matan Ruak, and the presence of occupying troops till next year’s election might seriously undermine Fretilin’s dominant position. But then again, the coup might fail.

Occupying armies are bad news for democracy. The Australian government comes to its most recent intervention in Timor Leste literally ‘blooded’ from its spectacularly unsuccessful interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Solomons.

The current intervention may be necessary, if it has been legitimately called for by the East Timorese government; but it is also a great danger for the country’s democracy. Australian people, who strongly supported independence for the people of Timor Leste, should watch Howard’s latest intervention very closely.

Tim Anderson is an academic who has visited Timor Leste several times, both before and after independence.
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excellent strong article
Submitted by ecology action ... on Mon, 2006/05/29 - 10:07am.

I too detected gunboat diplomacy as a dimension a week or more back, and wrote at that time of "a self fulfilling prophesy type situation" from that time on. On the other hand the extreme violence of the last 4 days and politcal murders does put Downer in a strong favourable light. Hence my headline of Sunday political talkies penultimate imc post here.

Some of that was real politik headline observation and some of that was me being pursuaded of his vindication.

But Tim Anderson has made a strong insight here too and I feel quite agnostic about whether its coup or incompetence or a bit of both.

I do think Angolan intolerance rings a bit true with Alkateri. I call it the godless communism that sees death as necessary in revolution. The Che factor, closely related as the tail of the snake of power reaches the mouth, to the godless greed of mammon that kills with ultra self serving violence.

Good old abuse of power.

Two minor concerns with Tim's article here:

Does Xanana really have kidney disease or back trouble as reported by Downer?

Is there really any doubt that Alkateri did also agree to the intervention force along with other political reps there? I think it very likely he did.

Laslty Tim says wisely I think "The current intervention may be necessary, if it has been
legitimately called for by the East Timorese government; but it is also a great
danger for the country’s democracy."

If we could have more on this aspect especially as to facts around this, and around constructive ideas to return the military, and para military to the norms of democracy and yes law and order I would be, and I suspect politics gnerally would be quite appreciative.

Another comment: The bad deal on oil and gas in my speculation could well relate to the cost of the intervention in 1999 to the Australian budget. So I ask now is there a hypothication of cost of the current "huge logistical" intervention this last few weeks on to the political debts of the East Timor again, thus further reinforcing Tim's wise counsel on threat to genuine democracy of a poor country, indeed a country with strong medical ties to Cuba?

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This must go on Australia, local newswire too?
Submitted by ecology action ... on Mon, 2006/05/29 - 10:29am.

We are talking Howard govt direct influence here?
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ABC & SBS
Submitted by Marls (not verified) on Mon, 2006/05/29 - 8:08pm.

We are now seeing where ABC & SBS are at; just like the main media, they have failed to address the issues Dr Anderson raises. The fact is that they continue to follow the Australian government's line. Should we continue to ask where their allegiances lie?

In regards to Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, because he won more than 90% support in a recent party vote, and because Fretilin retains almost 60% support across the country then Mr Alkatiri should continue to lead his country until the next elections, early next year, & beyond if he is re-elected - with the full support of the President & the international community (although we know that some of the wolves will do the most to undermine Mr Alkatiri's leadership).
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Thoughts of the 'democrat'...
Submitted by Marls (not verified) on Tue, 2006/05/30 - 12:18am.

Thoughts of the 'democrat' whom Australia is now promoting as Timor Leste's

Asian Wall Street Journal (October 17, 2005)
U.S. Soldiers Are The Real Heroes In Iraq
By Jose Ramos-Horta

Time and again as I watch the barbarity inflicted on innocent Iraqi civilians, often women and children, pass with seeming silence and indifference from the rest of the world, I ask where are those who are so quick to take to the streets to protest every alleged U.S. sin -- be it real or imaginary? If they are so appalled at the graphic photos showing the depraved acts committed by a small number of American servicemen -- photos that, never let it be forgotten, were unearthed as a result of the U.S. Army's own investigation...

...Retreat is not a viable option for the costs would be far too high for U.S. vital interests in the Middle East and the world as a whole. Iraq would inevitably descend into a Somalia-like failed state with dire implications for its neighbors. Oil prices would skyrocket, bankrupting many non-oil producing countries, and triggering recessions in industrialized economies...

For full article read:
http://state-of-flux.blogspot.com/2005/10/jose-ramos-horta-on-iraq.html
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Just too simplistic for words
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 2006/05/30 - 12:37am.

How simple this all is to those who cannot bear anything other than a simple 'good guys versus bad guys' explanation. Multi-layered factors play no part in anything here. "Cuba" seems enough for Mr Anderson as usual (is he an academic? where?). Cubans might be idealistic helpers but Cuban political and human rights policy is not exactly perfect you know.

Read the Crikey article about the Timorese judicial system and its problems, try and conceive how diabolical the machinations have to be for the east/west divide to be a false one (getting east and west collaborators to loot and kill their west/east brothers to further the cause for political intervention). And when does a throw away line about wanting a VB mean that the Australian government is a conspirator with him?

I am not going to try and explain all this in a few words, no matter how much the political pooh bahs on SIM need that type of response. The jury is still out.

As for those who will stick to the current PM of East Timor through thick and thin, this is nothing new. Trotsky, Mugabe and Castro are still perfect according to some and that is not to ever dare mentioning John Pilger and his sticking to Milosevic forever. Give the current PM a fair go but never shy from whatever facts there are available to shed light on his worth.
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author cred, Ramos Horta's career, Clinton
Submitted by ecology action ... on Tue, 2006/05/30 - 8:16am.

Our anon reader/commenter is a bit harsh on Tim Anderson I think. He is a very experienced political analyst of left persuasion to be true but I like that. I think he does have academic qualifications but even more very great life experience. I agree wholeheartedly with his socialist ideals just like Jesus would actually. It's all about equitable distribution and you can't get around it in this greedy western country, though of course the Establishment will always try and deny this with their CEO hundred fold salary multiples. As far as I'm concerned Tim is on the side of the angels former struggles notwithstanding.

Also 2 weeks ago Ramos Horta was downplaying the need for military help from Australia on Sydney 702 Radio, in the Richard Fidler Conversation Hour and was prompted over suggestions he is being touted for succession to Koffi Annan. Really. He downplayed that too as a long long shot. But not entirely with his wide travel, diverse language skills, alot of cred, and high intelligence. Watch the movie The Diplomat to get an insight into his Robinson Crusoe real politik existence and struggle for his beloved Timor Leste.

Having said all this: One cannot help but like the guy who admits his first wife was a better person than him, who is in truth a founding father with others of his country if only through that meeting with Clinton in NZ at the height of the 1999 crisis. For me that was the meeting that allowed ethical change in ET in terms of historical claims to self determination.

Well I remember that time frantically ringing the White House reception from my Bondi digs, getting 10 seconds the first time then 1 sec the 2nd and 3rd. Try it and you will be diverted to a recorded message. Then New York Times news desk to leverage my Aussie accent. Some guy agreed the govt in Washington were bastards. But not entirely it would appear. Clinton.

Not so long afterward my place was burgled and my council funded laptop was stolen. Just another druggy break in? I guess so. You get alot of that in Sydney.